On the eve of the presentation of the general budget, the country’s Chief Economic Advisor K.V. Subramaniam, in a special conversation with Hindustan’s special correspondent Saurabh Shukla, expressed hope that with the speed at which the vaccination program has started in the country to prevent corona, the ill effects of the corona epidemic can be completely eliminated within a year. He also said that after vaccination, the economic situation will start changing rapidly and the economy will return on track. According to him, the losses of small farmers are increasing due to the farmers’ movement. Here are special excerpts from the conversation with him
Question – The economic situation after the corona pandemic is in front of everyone, so in your opinion, how and in what way will it improve?
answer – I believe that by the end of this year, the effect of the corona epidemic will be completely over and the situation will become normal. However, the opinion of people associated with health services will be more accurate in this regard and they will be able to tell better. But the way the vaccination campaign has been carried out and everyone will get vaccinated, the obstacles in business due to the epidemic will end in the coming days. Once the business is back on track, all the problems on the economic front will also end automatically.
Question – On which fronts is the situation expected to improve?
answer – First of all, by getting vaccinated, the health concerns of the people will end and business activities will start increasing. The result will be that manufacturing will increase, exports will increase and people will also start buying the goods of their needs which are being avoided till now. In this way, changes will be seen in the economic environment. Along with this, in the coming days, expenditure on capacity expansion by the government and private sector will also increase, due to which the situation will also improve on the employment front.
Question- How will the expenditure that you are referring to by the government and private sector take place and on which fronts do you see the maximum expenditure in the coming days?
answer – People have now started paying attention to the expansion plans that were on hold for the past several months. The government and private sectors are expected to increase spending in the coming months. The maximum spending will be done on infrastructure. The government will take forward the schemes that are already running, which will not only increase spending but will also create employment opportunities on a large scale. And when employment increases, the money in people’s hands to spend will also increase.
At the same time, the increased expenditure on healthcare and vaccination will keep everyone healthy and prevent disruptions in business. When there is no fear of disease, people can also start traveling. By giving some concessions to the tourism sector and speeding up this direction, the government’s income can also increase.
Question- Where will the government get the money to do all this?
answer – Today the interest rate on loans is quite low. In such a situation, just like the private sector, the government can also improve the country’s infrastructure through loans. Many other important works can also be done by spending the loan amount, which will lead to the development of the country as well as increase employment. Overall, this will be such an expenditure through which income will also increase. With that income, the loan will be repaid and profit is also certain.
Question – What is your opinion on providing free corona vaccine?
answer – Even though free vaccination is being done in the country right now, it will also open many avenues of earning. In the coming days, the government’s earnings will be much more than the expenditure made on vaccination. From an economic point of view, vaccination fee will be a burden especially on the poor. Even if its price is kept at two hundred rupees, it will cost Rs 1000 for a family of five. On the other hand, even if people are charged according to the category, it will not be successful. There is a difference between giving free TV and giving vaccine in the country. To eliminate the fear of corona, it is very important to get vaccinated rapidly.
Question – After the corona pandemic, the second major problem that has come before the government is the farmers’ movement. What impact do you see of this?
answer-The law made by the government for farmers is sure to benefit small farmers. Small farmers do not have any option. In the absence of options, they are forced to sell their crops at the whims of the market. Big farmers still have options. But when a small farmer goes to the market to sell his crop, the group of the market does not give him any option. In such a situation, farmers will get the benefit only after the implementation of the law, if it is put on hold, then small farmers will continue to suffer losses.
Question-It has been said in the economic survey that during the Corona period, the banks took the most advantage of the government relief. What further steps should be taken to stop this?
Answer- The relief given by the regulators during Corona should have been only for the emergency. There is no justification for continuing it for a long time. It is just like the medicine for a serious disease is given for a fixed time only. If it is used for a long time, then its bad consequences also start coming. Similarly, on the economic front, the time period of relief given by the government and regulators must be fixed.
Question- What will be the condition of GDP in the coming years? You have estimated 11 percent GDP for the next financial year, how will this happen?
answer – This year, due to the pandemic, growth will be negative. This figure will be minus 7.7 percent and in the next financial year i.e. 2021-22, this figure can be close to 11 percent with double digit growth. The growth capacity before Corona was around 6.5-7.5 percent. After the coming financial year i.e. 2022-23, the GDP will again weaken and the growth rate before Corona i.e. 6.5-7.5 percent is expected. Till then, it is expected that investment from the private sector will increase. There has also been a decrease in capacity expansion work during Corona. Now in the months of October and November, it has seen an increase of up to two and a half times. It has increased further in December. This is the reason why it is being estimated that this pace will continue and GDP will also increase.
